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Blazing Indiscretions

Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Keep in mind the law of unintended consequences

NY TIMES - Do We Really Know What Makes Us Healthy? - Many explanations have been offered to make sense of the here-today-gone-tomorrow nature of medical wisdom — what we are advised with confidence one year is reversed the next — but the simplest one is that it is the natural rhythm of science. An observation leads to a hypothesis. The hypothesis (last year’s advice) is tested, and it fails this year’s test, which is always the most likely outcome in any scientific endeavor. There are, after all, an infinite number of wrong hypotheses for every right one, and so the odds are always against any particular hypothesis being true, no matter how obvious or vitally important it might seem.
Posted by JayV at 9:33 AM
Labels: health, science

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